Battleground 2026

Postponing or cancelling the election

What has happened

• Jan 6, 2026Remark In a speech to House Republicans, Trump said he would not say "cancel the election" because the press would call him a dictator. source
• Jan 14, 2026Remark Told Reuters that given his administration's accomplishments, "we shouldn't even have an election." Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said he was joking. source

No prediction market or expert survey prices this.

A national emergency over elections

What has happened

• Feb 26, 2026Press report The Washington Post reported pro-Trump activists, who said they were coordinating with the White House, were circulating a 17-page draft order declaring a national emergency over alleged Chinese interference in 2020. Trump said he had "never heard about it." source
• Aug 11, 2026Remark Asked about declaring a national emergency to set voting rules, Trump declined to rule it out: "Stranger things have happened." source
• Aug 31, 2026Action taken Renewed for another year the 2018 national emergency on foreign election interference (Executive Order 13848), as has been done every year since 2019. It authorizes sanctions on foreign actors who interfere in U.S. elections. It gives no power over how elections are run, though some pro-Trump sites described the renewal as a new election emergency. source
• Sep 2026Press report The Atlantic reported some allies urging Trump to declare martial law; no such step has been taken. source

Markets: Trump formally declares a national emergency over election interference by Dec 31, 2026: 18% on Polymarket

Troops or the Insurrection Act

What has happened

• Aug 28, 2026Official statement Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine to Sen. Elissa Slotkin: "The Joint Force has no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections," nor to seize ballots or voting machines. He added he had "neither received nor anticipate[s] receiving any unlawful order" about the midterms. source
• EarlierCourt The Supreme Court blocked the federalization of National Guard forces in Chicago. source

Markets: Insurrection Act invoked by Dec 31, 2026 (for any reason): 14% on Polymarket; Insurrection Act invoked before Jan 1, 2027 (for any reason): 18% on Kalshi; Martial law imposed in the US before Jan 1, 2027: 22% on Kalshi

ICE or other federal agents at polling places

What has happened

• Feb 25, 2026Official statement DHS official Heather Honey told state election officials ICE will not be stationed at polling places. DHS: "ICE is not planning operations targeting polling locations." source
• Mar 2026Action taken Bills to keep immigration enforcement away from polling places were offered in at least seven states (CA, CT, NM, PA, RI, VA, WA). Which ones passed is not confirmed here. source
• May 2026Action taken San Antonio: ICE agents questioned a driver at a traffic stop near a polling place; local police asked them to leave. County officials said no voters were questioned and voting ran normally. source
• Sep 15, 2026Official statement FBI Director Kash Patel declined to commit that FBI agents would stay away from polling places, saying agents would "follow the law" and that election-crimes coordinators sit in all 56 field offices. source
• Sep 18, 2026Court Nine groups, including the NAACP, sued DHS and other agencies to bar agents from intimidating voters at polls. The government rejects the premise. Its Oct 28 declaration on who will staff poll monitors (see Justice Department poll monitors) was filed in this case; no ruling had been reported as of Oct 31. source
• Oct 21, 2026Court Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín restricted DHS's door-to-door "unlawful voting" operation, in which armed ICE agents questioned residents about whether they had voted and DHS posted videos of arrests, in nine states (CA, CT, GA, MO, NV, NY, PA, WA, WI) through Election Day. She found the target lists relied on unreliable data, some from "unknown artificial intelligence tools," and that the initiative likely amounts to voter intimidation under the Voting Rights Act. DHS: it is "laser focused on identifying, prosecuting, and removing aliens who vote." source
• Oct 28, 2026Official statement In a sworn court declaration the Justice Department said no FBI or ICE personnel, and no one able to make an arrest, will serve as poll monitors. source
• Oct 30, 2026Court The Ninth Circuit refused to pause the nine-state restrictions, finding the government had not shown irreparable harm, so they stay in force through Election Day. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin says the department is investigating more than 300,000 cases of alleged noncitizen voting. source
• EarlierRemark Steve Bannon, a former Trump adviser outside government, called for ICE to "surround the polls." source

Seizing ballots or voting machines

What has happened

• Dec 2020Press report A draft executive order to seize voting machines after the 2020 election was written but never issued. source
• Jan 28, 2026Action taken The FBI executed a court-authorized search warrant at Fulton County, Georgia's elections hub and took roughly 650 to 700 boxes of 2020 ballots and records. Multiple 2020 reviews found no significant irregularities there. County officials called it "intimidation"; no charges had been reported as of Oct 31. source
• May 6, 2026Court Judge J.P. Boulee ruled the Justice Department can keep the seized Fulton County materials, finding the seizure "certainly not perfect" but not unconstitutional. source
• Aug 28, 2026Official statement Gen. Caine: the military has no plans to seize ballots, voting machines or other election material. source
• Oct 30, 2026Court After DOJ letters to 57 of California's 58 counties threatened criminal investigations unless officials set aside ballots of alleged noncitizens within 48 hours, Judge Trina Thompson barred DOJ and DHS from threatening or coercing election officials to segregate ballots, purge voters or halt ballot processing. She also required the government to tell her of any search warrant applications or grand jury subpoenas for election materials tied to its lists. She wrote that the actions "are likely to have the effect of interfering with election administration and disenfranchising lawful voters." The order runs to Nov 16. source

Justice Department poll monitors

What has happened

• Jul 7, 2026Action taken The Civil Rights Division sent monitors to 15 jurisdictions in six states for the primaries. source
• Aug 2026Official statement Assistant AG Harmeet Dhillon said the department will send about 1,000 monitors in November, drawing volunteers from across the federal government. For comparison, the Biden Justice Department covered 64 jurisdictions in 2022 and 86 in 2024. source
• Oct 22, 2026Action taken DOJ began notifying counties it plans to monitor, including Adams County (CO), Miami-Dade (FL), Hennepin and Ramsey (MN), King (WA) and seven Texas counties. Dhillon called it "the largest monitoring effort" in the department's history. Adams County's clerk called it "potentially an intimidation technique"; DOJ rejects that. source
• Oct 28, 2026Official statement Sworn declaration by Voting Section acting chief Eric Neff: monitors will come from the Bureau of Prisons, ATF and DEA, not the FBI or ICE. They will be unarmed, wear no federal insignia, only observe and take notes, and not speak with voters inside polling places. source

Federal limits on mail voting

What has happened

• Mar 2026Action taken Executive order: DHS builds state citizenship lists, the Postal Service delivers mail ballots only to listed voters, envelope design rules, and prosecution of officials who send ballots to ineligible people. The White House frames it as election security. source
• Aug 24, 2026Court The Supreme Court, 6-3, lifted one injunction because the states sued too early, while warning that not every implementing step will "necessarily be lawful." The White House called it "a major win for the security of American elections." source
• Sep 2026Court Judge Indira Talwani blocked the Postal Service rule and found the proposals unconstitutional; the Supreme Court declined to let the rule take effect. The order is blocked for November. source